FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Aberdeen 0–1 St JohnstoneMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Aberdeen or draw at 70%. Bawler had Aberdeen at 42%, the draw at 28% and St Johnstone at 30%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Aberdeen win
42%
Draw
28%
St Johnstone win
30%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.2
Total 2.6
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 1.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.