FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Aberdeen 0–0 KilmarnockMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 05 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Aberdeen at 47%, draw at 25%, Kilmarnock at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Aberdeen to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Aberdeen win
47%
Draw
25%
Actual ✓
Kilmarnock win
28%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.75 – 1.31
Total 3.06
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-3.1 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 3.1 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 81% confidence because Aberdeen's 1.76 xG substantially outweighs Kilmarnock's 1.31, signaling enough attacking threat to breach the two-goal threshold."