FT · SCOTLAND: Premiership · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Aberdeen 0–1 RangersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 30 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Aberdeen at 22%, draw at 24%, Rangers at 54%. The match ended 0-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Rangers.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Aberdeen win
22%
Draw
24%
Rangers win
54%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.13 – 1.89
Total 3.02
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-2.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Away Win
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 36%
✗ Lost