FT · Scotland: Scottish Prem · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Kilmarnock 0–4 Dundee UnitedMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Kilmarnock at 43%, draw at 24%, Dundee United at 32%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-4. The model's headline call was Kilmarnock to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Kilmarnock win
43%
Draw
24%
United win
32%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.76 – 1.51
Total 3.27
Actual
0 – 4
Total 4 (+0.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 84% because Kilmarnock's 1.76 xG and Dundee United's 1.51 xG combined for 3.27 total attacking output in a fixture the model sees as competitive."