FT · SCOTLAND: Premiership · Wednesday, 02 September 2026
Kilmarnock 0–1 St MirrenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 02 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Kilmarnock at 40%, draw at 27%, St Mirren at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-1. The model's headline call was Kilmarnock to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Kilmarnock win
40%
Draw
27%
Mirren win
33%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 1.31
Total 2.77
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (-1.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 52%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost