FT · SCOTLAND: Premiership · Wednesday, 02 September 2026
Celtic 3–0 AberdeenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Wednesday, 02 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Celtic at 76%, draw at 15%, Aberdeen at 8%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Celtic.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Celtic win
76%
Actual ✓
Draw
15%
Aberdeen win
8%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.61 – 0.77
Total 3.38
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (-0.4 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.4 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won