Bawler / EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs / Freiburg
Team profile

Freiburg Prediction

Per-game numbers from 49 competitive matches · updated 17 August 2026

Shots
12.5
a game
13.3 faced
On target
4.5
a game
4.3 faced
Goals
1.6 – 1.4
scored – conceded
a game, 49 matches
Next match
19%
Freiburg win chance
at Motherwell · Thu 20 Aug 18:30

Freiburg prediction: for Freiburg's next match — Motherwell vs Freiburg on Thursday 20 Aug, 18:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Motherwell are favoured (51%).

Freiburg sit close to the Europa League - Play Offs average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.40 expected goals a game and conceding 1.45. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 2.43 a game against 1.40 expected. Next up is a trip to Motherwell, where the model has them as underdogs at 19%.

Freiburg in numbers

49 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.6
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
Home 2.0Away 1.1
4.1
Corners · per game
give up 4.3
Home 4.5Away 3.8
12.5
Shots · per game
faced 13.3
Home 14.8Away 10.0
4.5
On target · per game
faced 4.3
Home 5.3Away 3.5
Last 6 games
20 May
0-3
vs Aston Villa
1-8
16 May
4-1
vs RB Leipzig
1-2
10 May
2-3
@ Hamburger SV
4-2
07 May
3-1
vs Braga
4-8
03 May
1-1
vs Wolfsburg
1-7
30 Apr
1-2
@ Braga
1-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's predictions →

Next match

Away vs Motherwell · Thursday 20 Aug, 18:30 UTC

Win
19%
Freiburg
Draw
31%
Loss
51%
Motherwell
Full match preview

Attack vs defence

How Freiburg compare with the EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs average, per match.

Goals for
1.40
Above average
Goals against
1.45
Leakier than most
Record
5W 0D 2L
7 settled
Real goals
2.4 – 1.6
For / against, per match
Scored1.40
Conceded1.45

The grey line on each bar is the EUROPE: Europa League - Play Offs average (1.40 scored, 1.40 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Freiburg fixtures (6/6).

How Bawler has done on Freiburg

100%
of high-confidence calls correct — 7 of 7, well above the ~65% baseline
Goals (Over/Under)100%6/6

Each row is one market type. Every prediction logged before kickoff, settled publicly.

Later fixtures

Thu 27 Augvs Motherwell
Sun 30 Augvs Werder Bremen

Recent matches (last 7)

Wed 20 Mayvs Aston Villa
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sat 16 Mayvs RB Leipzig
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 26 Apr@ Dortmund
High confidence: Dortmund or Draw (Double Chance)
Thu 16 Apr@ Celta Vigo
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 09 Aprvs Celta Vigo
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Sun 22 Mar@ St. Pauli
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals
Thu 19 Marvs Genk
High confidence: Over 1.5 Goals

Transfer activity

INMio BackhausGKfrom Werder Bremen€12m
INKeisuke GotoSTfrom Anderlecht€10m
INYannik EngelhardtDMfrom Como€7m
INRihito YamamotoDMfrom St.Truiden€7m
OUTJohan ManzambiDMto Aston Villa€60m
OUTMerlin RöhlRWto Everton€25m
OUTRobert WagnerDMto Dynamo Dresden€850k
OUTChukwubuike AdamuSTto Schalke 04€800k
OUTAlessio BesioLWto WolfsburgUndisclosed
OUTNoah WeisshauptRWto Darmstadt€500k
OUTDavid Amegnagloto Westerlo€320k
OUTYann SturmLWto Eintracht BraunschweigUndisclosed

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

More on Freiburg and the model

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly