SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen prediction — Bundesliga · Sun 30 Aug · 14:30 UK

Bundesliga · Sun 30 Aug · 14:30 UK
SC Freiburg 55Draw 24Werder Bremen 21
The call
79%
SC Freiburg or draw
2.9
Goals expected
Full time
Final 4–1

How it finished

SC Freiburg beat Werder Bremen 4–1. Bawler's model had SC Freiburg in front at 55% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5. SC Freiburg had 19 shots (5 on target) to Werder Bremen's 9 (3), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 0.5.

SC FreiburgFull-time statsWerder Bremen
53%Possession47%
1.9Expected goals (xG)0.5
19Shots9
5Shots on target3
8Shots inside box6
3Big chances2
6Corners5
2Saves1
13Fouls16
0Offsides1
1Yellow cards1
What we publishedBeforeAfter
ResultSC Freiburg 55%SC Freiburg (55% called)
Total goals2.95
Both teams to score55%Yes
Model call1X 79%Landed

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

MarketProbability
SC Freiburg to score84%
Over 1.5 goals78%
Under 3.5 goals67%
Werder Bremen to score65%

First half — what we expected

SC FreiburgBefore half-timeWerder Bremen
57%Chance to score29%
8.8Expected shots4.9
3.0Expected shots on target1.6
3.5Expected corners1.8
63%Chance of 8+ shots14%
39%Chance of 10+ shots4%
65%Chance of 2+ shots on target46%
36%Chance of 4+ shots on target7%
66%Chance of 3+ corners28%
28%Chance of 5+ corners5%

Chance of at least one first-half goal: 70%. Based on how often each side shoots and wins corners before the break, not a share of their full-match numbers.

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)+0.8 / match
Opponent strength indexUpper mid

Head to head

Feb 2026Freiburg 1–0 Werder Bremen
Sept 2025Werder Bremen 0–3 Freiburg
Feb 2025Freiburg 5–0 Werder Bremen
Oct 2024Werder Bremen 0–1 Freiburg
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?

SC Freiburg beat Werder Bremen 4–1. Bawler's model had SC Freiburg in front at 55% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.9 goals; the match produced 5. SC Freiburg had 19 shots (5 on target) to Werder Bremen's 9 (3), with 53% of the ball against 47%. Expected goals finished 1.9 to 0.5.

What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?

SC Freiburg 4–1 Werder Bremen, played on 30 Aug 2026 in the GERMANY: Bundesliga. Bawler's model had gone into it with SC Freiburg 55%, the draw 24% and Werder Bremen 21%.

What were the stats in SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?

Full-time: Possession 53%–47%, Expected goals (xG) 1.9–0.5, Shots 19–9, Shots on target 5–3, Shots inside box 8–6, Big chances 3–2, Corners 6–5, Saves 2–1, Fouls 13–16, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 1–1.

Did both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen?

Yes — both SC Freiburg and Werder Bremen scored, finishing 4–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for SC Freiburg vs Werder Bremen right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Result — we said SC Freiburg 55%, it finished SC Freiburg (55% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes; Model call — we said 1X 79%, it finished Landed.

Around this fixture

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