Bawler / USA: MLS / Cincinnati
Team profile · USA: MLS

Cincinnati Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
12
11 settled
Goals for
1.48
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.69
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
100%
11/11 calls

Cincinnati prediction: for Cincinnati's next match — Orlando City vs Cincinnati on Saturday 15 Aug, 23:30 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Orlando City are favoured (39%). The model's strongest call is Over 1.5 Goals.

Cincinnati sit close to the MLS average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.48 expected goals a game and conceding 1.69. They have been finishing above their chances, scoring 3.18 a game against 1.48 expected. Recent form is good, with 3 wins in their last 5. Next up is a trip to Orlando City SC, where the model makes this close to a coin toss at 35%.

Next match

Away vs Orlando City · Saturday 15 Aug, 23:30 UTC

Win
35%
Cincinnati
Draw
26%
Loss
39%
Orlando City
High confidence · Over 1.5 Goals @ 85%
Full match preview

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
5W 3D 3L
Real goals
3.2 – 2.8
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Cincinnati compare with the USA: MLS average, per match.

Goals for
1.48
Above average
Goals against
1.69
Leakier than most
Scored1.48
Conceded1.69

The grey line on each bar is the USA: MLS average (1.48 scored, 1.45 conceded).

What the data says
Leaky defensively
Conceding 1.69 xG per match · +0.24 vs league average of 1.45.
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 100% of the time on Cincinnati fixtures (8/8).

📊 Cincinnati in numbers

52 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.9
Goals · per game
let in 1.6
🏠 2.1✈️ 1.6
4.2
Corners · per game
give up 5.2
🏠 4.6✈️ 3.8
13.6
Shots · per game
faced 14.6
🏠 14.4✈️ 12.5
5.5
On target · per game
faced 4.9
🏠 5.8✈️ 5.2
🗓️ Last 6 games
12 Aug
1-2
vs Atlas
🚩 10-0
08 Aug
2-0
vs UNAM Pumas
🚩 4-6
05 Aug
3-1
vs Pachuca
🚩 3-6
01 Aug
4-2
vs San Jose Earthquakes
🚩 -
25 Jul
1-2
@ Columbus Crew
🚩 5-4
22 Jul
4-3
vs Vancouver Whitecaps
🚩 1-3

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Cincinnati matches
100%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 11

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Cincinnati fixture, it is right 11 out of 11 (100%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Model accuracy on Cincinnati by market
Goals (Over/Under)100%8/8
Result100%3/3

How to read this: each row groups settled high-confidence calls the model made on Cincinnati fixtures by market type, so you can see where the model has the strongest read on this team. Higher hit rate = more reliable category for Cincinnati matches.

Recent matches (last 10)

Transfer activity

INFabian MrozekGKfrom LiverpoolLoan
OUTGilberto FloresCBto LibertadLoan
OUTNoah AdnanCBto Loudoun United FCFree transfer
OUTPeter MangioneCMto Brooklyn FCFree transfer
OUTAmir DaleyRWBto Birmingham Legion FCFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Cincinnati prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly