FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 26 July 2026
Columbus Crew 2–1 FC CincinnatiMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Columbus Crew at 46%, draw at 28%, FC Cincinnati at 25%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Columbus Crew.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Crew win
46%
Actual ✓
Draw
28%
Cincinnati win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.79 – 1.28
Total 3.07
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 81% probability because Columbus generates a decisive 0.50 xG edge (1.79 vs 1.28) with Diego Rossi controlling a quarter of their attacking output."