Bawler / Netherlands: Eredivisie / Ajax
Team profile · Netherlands: Eredivisie

Ajax Prediction

Form, fixtures and every settled pick · updated 13 August 2026

Matches
9
8 settled
Goals for
1.62
Expected, per match
Goals against
1.63
Expected, per match
High-confidence accuracy
88%
7/8 calls

Ajax prediction: for Ajax's next match — Shelbourne vs Ajax on Thursday 13 Aug, 18:45 UTC — Bawler's model makes it Shelbourne are favoured (40%). The model's strongest call is Shelbourne or Draw.

Ajax sit close to the Eredivisie average on both sides of the ball, creating 1.62 expected goals a game and conceding 1.63. They are unbeaten across their last 5 settled matches. Next up is a trip to Shelbourne, where the model has them as underdogs at 32%.

Next match

Away vs Shelbourne · Thursday 13 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Win
32%
Ajax
Draw
28%
Loss
40%
Shelbourne
High confidence · Shelbourne or Draw @ 68%
Full match preview

Form pulse

The last 5 settled results, most recent first.

Record
3W 4D 1L
Real goals
1.5 – 0.9
For / against, per match

Attack vs defence

How Ajax compare with the Netherlands: Eredivisie average, per match.

Goals for
1.62
Above average
Goals against
1.63
Tighter than most
Scored1.62
Conceded1.63

The grey line on each bar is the Netherlands: Eredivisie average (1.60 scored, 1.64 conceded).

What the data says
Model is strongest on: Goals (Over/Under)
High-confidence calls in this market are correct 86% of the time on Ajax fixtures (6/7).
Squad availability · Ajax vs Shelbourne
Fetching squad availability…

How to read this: known injuries, suspensions, and doubtful players for both squads, pulled from FotMob's official feed. Updates close to kickoff as managers confirm availability.

📊 Ajax in numbers

46 competitive matches · friendlies excluded
1.7
Goals · per game
let in 1.4
🏠 1.6✈️ 1.8
5.1
Corners · per game
give up 4.8
🏠 5.6✈️ 4.6
14.5
Shots · per game
faced 13.0
🏠 15.2✈️ 13.7
5.5
On target · per game
faced 4.6
🏠 6.0✈️ 5.0
🗓️ Last 6 games
09 Aug
2-0
@ Zwolle
🚩 10-2
06 Aug
3-1
vs Shelbourne
🚩 14-0
24 May
1-1
vs Utrecht
🚩 -
21 May
2-0
vs Groningen
🚩 4-0
17 May
0-0
@ Heerenveen
🚩 6-10
10 May
1-2
vs Utrecht
🚩 4-7

Real counted numbers, updated daily · see them working on today's tips →

Model accuracy on Ajax matches
88%
of high-confidence calls correct, over 8

When the model makes a high-confidence call on a Ajax fixture, it is right 7 out of 8 (88%). This is well above the cross-league baseline of ~65%. Every prediction is logged before kickoff and settled publicly.

Recent matches (last 8)

Transfer activity

INMarcos LeonardoSTfrom Al Hilal€20m
INTolu ArokodareSTfrom Wolverhampton WanderersLoan
INCaio HenriqueLBfrom Monaco€11m
INJulian BrandtAMfrom Borussia DortmundFree transfer
INMarc-André ter StegenGKfrom BarcelonaLoan
INDaley BlindCBfrom Free agentFree transfer
INFouad ZahouaniLBfrom Union Touarga Sport€500k
INJano Monserratefrom Atletico MadridFree transfer
OUTSean SteurCMto Newcastle United€23m
OUTOleksandr ZinchenkoLBto Free agentFree transfer
OUTTakehiro TomiyasuCBto Free agentFree transfer
OUTChuba AkpomAMto Ipswich TownUndisclosed
OUTKian Fitz-JimDMto Torino€2.5m
OUTSivert Heggheim MannsverkCMto Sparta Prague€2.5m
OUTWout WeghorstSTto FC TwenteFree transfer
OUTWout WeghorstSTto Free agentFree transfer

Confirmed deals only. All transfers and what they mean for our predictions →

Ajax prediction markets

More from Bawler

Model estimates from rolling expected goals · every prediction logged before kickoff and settled publicly