Match prediction·EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification·Thursday 13 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Shelbourne vs Ajax Amsterdam

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
40.0% home28.0% draw32.0% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
ShelbournestepAjax Amsterdam
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10

Shelbourne average 4.0 corners per game at home this season (4 competitive matches). Ajax average 4.6 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Under 3.5 goals
81%
Shelbourne or Draw
68%
Shelbourne Win
40%
Draw
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

Shelbourne vs Ajax — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 6 August 2026, Shelbourne have won 0, Ajax have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
6 August 2026Ajax 31 ShelbourneEUROPE: Conference League - Qualification

The model's verdict for this fixture: Shelbourne 40% · draw 28% · Ajax 32%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.