Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg prediction — Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sept · 14:30 UK

Bundesliga · Sat 19 Sept · 14:30 UK
Werder Bremen 44Draw 25FC Augsburg 31
The call
69%
Werder Bremen or draw
3.0
Goals expected
14d 03hUntil lineups lock

What we expect

Werder Bremen to score81%
Over 1.5 goals80%
FC Augsburg to score74%
Under 3.5 goals65%

Player forecasts

How much each player is expected to threaten the goal if he starts — lineups are confirmed about an hour before kickoff.

Based on counted shooting from the 2025/26 season in this competition.

Werder Bremen
1+ shot1+ on target2+ on target
Keke Topp
FW · 3.4 shots expected
97%
57%
21%
Justin Njinmah
FW · 3.0 shots expected
95%
69%
32%
Marco Grüll
FW · 2.2 shots expected
89%
55%
19%
Jens Stage
MF · 2.0 shots expected
87%
53%
18%
Cameron Puertas
MF · 1.8 shots expected
84%
36%
8%
Romano Schmid
MF · 1.8 shots expected
83%
45%
12%
FC Augsburg
1+ shot1+ on target2+ on target
Michael Gregoritsch
FW · 2.5 shots expected
92%
61%
25%
Alexis Claude-Maurice
MF · 2.5 shots expected
92%
57%
21%
Mert Kömür
MF · 2.1 shots expected
88%
52%
17%
Anton Kade
MF · 2.1 shots expected
88%
56%
20%
Fabian Rieder
MF · 1.4 shots expected
75%
36%
8%
Marius Wolf
MF · 1.2 shots expected
69%
33%
6%

These are forecasts, not tips. A player’s rate is weighted toward the league average when it rests on fewer minutes, so a small sample never reads as a certainty.

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)D L L L W L
Expected goals gap (xG)+0.3 / match
Head-to-head, last 5WER 1 · D 2 · AUG 2
Opponent strength indexTop quartile

Head to head

May 2026Werder Bremen 1–3 Augsburg
Dec 2025Augsburg 0–0 Werder Bremen
Jan 2025Werder Bremen 0–2 Augsburg
Aug 2024Augsburg 2–2 Werder Bremen
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Common questions

Who will win Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?

Bawler's model rates this match: Werder Bremen are favoured (44% win probability vs 31% for FC Augsburg, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Werder Bremen 1-1 FC Augsburg (11.7% probability). Expected total goals: 3.00.

How does Bawler predict Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Werder Bremen 44%, the draw 25% and FC Augsburg 31%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?

BTTS: Yes (60% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.65 and away expected goals 1.35.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.00. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Bundesliga table →
All fixtures & results →Werder Bremen form →FC Augsburg form →