FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 10 October 2026
FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayern MunichMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 10 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Bayern Munich to win at 70%. Bawler had FC Augsburg at 14%, the draw at 17% and Bayern Munich at 70%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Augsburg win
14%
Draw
17%
Result
Bayern Munich win
70%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 2.8
Total 4.0
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 5.0
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 4.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Bayern Munich to win
Pre-match: 70%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.