FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Werder Bremen 3–2 FC AugsburgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Werder Bremen at 44%, draw at 25%, FC Augsburg at 31%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Werder Bremen.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Bremen win
44%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
Augsburg win
31%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.65 – 1.36
Total 3.01
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 80% because Bremen's 1.65 xG and Augsburg's 1.35 xG combine for an even, open fixture where Ducksch's striker role accounts for a quarter of the hosts' attacking threat."