FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
FC Cologne 1–1 Werder BremenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Cologne at 56%, draw at 24%, Werder Bremen at 21%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-1. The model's headline call was FC Cologne to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Cologne win
56%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
Bremen win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.91 – 1.09
Total 3.00
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (-1.0 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.0 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 80%, backed by Cologne's 0.82 xG advantage and 56% win probability suggesting a dominant performance that breaks through Bremen's 1.09 expected output."