FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Friday, 09 October 2026
Borussia Dortmund 2–2 Werder BremenMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 09 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Borussia Dortmund to win at 67%. Bawler had Borussia Dortmund at 67%, the draw at 20% and Werder Bremen at 13%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Borussia Dortmund win
67%
Draw
20%
Result
Werder Bremen win
13%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 0.9
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.4 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Borussia Dortmund to win
Pre-match: 67%
Missed
Medium confidence
Both teams to score
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.