FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt 1–4 FC AugsburgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Eintracht Frankfurt at 48%, draw at 24%, FC Augsburg at 28%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-4. The model's headline call was Eintracht Frankfurt to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Frankfurt win
48%
Draw
24%
Augsburg win
28%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.81 – 1.34
Total 3.16
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+1.8 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.8 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 82%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
1X
Pre-match: 72%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 39%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Frankfurt's hunt for European qualification clashes with Augsburg's comfortable mid-table position, setting up a high-confidence Over 1.5 Goals forecast (83%) as Marmoush and the hosts' 1.88 xG edge should break through the 1.35 xG resistance."