FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayer LeverkusenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Augsburg at 30%, draw at 24%, Bayer Leverkusen at 46%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-2. The model's headline call was Bayer Leverkusen to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Augsburg win
30%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
Leverkusen win
46%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.45 – 1.84
Total 3.29
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.7 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 0.7 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 84%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 70%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 84%, with Leverkusen's 1.84 xG—0.39 ahead of Augsburg—signaling attacking intent that overwhelms a defence allowing 1.45 expected shots."