Match prediction·USA: MLS·Thursday 20 Aug, 02:30 UTC

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo FC

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
63.0% home22.2% draw14.8% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
Vancouver WhitecapsstepHouston Dynamo FC
1.95Base xG · rolling 26-match0.88
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.95Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.88

Vancouver Whitecaps average 6.8 corners per game at home this season (25 competitive matches). Houston Dynamo average 4.1 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
6
5
2
1
1
12
10
4
1
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11
10
4
1
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7
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3
1
4
4
3
1
5
1
1
1
6
home windrawaway win

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

More predictions for these teams

Vancouver Whitecaps vs Houston Dynamo — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 17 May 2026, Vancouver Whitecaps have won 0, Houston Dynamo have won 1, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
17 May 2026Houston Dynamo 10 Vancouver WhitecapsUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: Vancouver Whitecaps 63% · draw 22% · Houston Dynamo 15%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.