FT · USA: MLS · Monday, 17 August 2026
Seattle Sounders FC 0–2 Vancouver WhitecapsMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 17 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Seattle Sounders FC at 27%, draw at 30%, Vancouver Whitecaps at 42%. The match ended 0-2 — confirming the model's lean toward Vancouver Whitecaps.
> Pre-match probability vs result
FC win
27%
Draw
30%
Whitecaps win
42%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.25 – 1.59
Total 2.84
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 76%, as Vancouver's 1.59 xG and Jordan Morris's creation threat from the wing set up a low-scoring but goal-heavy script."