What we expect
In plain English
TSG Hoffenheim are the model's pick, without being a certainty. They have lost five of their last six, the model expects them to create about a goal more per game than Hamburg SV, and they have won three of the last five between them. Expect goals: the model sees around four.
What would change the call
TSG Hoffenheim to win, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV?
Bawler's model rates this match: TSG Hoffenheim are favoured (68% win probability vs 14% for Hamburg SV, 18% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is TSG Hoffenheim 2-1 Hamburg SV (9.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.76.
How does Bawler predict TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives TSG Hoffenheim 68%, the draw 18% and Hamburg SV 14%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV?
BTTS: Yes (63% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 2.62 and away expected goals 1.14.
Over or under 2.5 goals in TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburg SV?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.76. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).