FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 24 October 2026
SC Paderborn 07 1–0 Hamburg SVMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 24 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was SC Paderborn 07 or draw at 72%. Bawler had SC Paderborn 07 at 47%, the draw at 25% and Hamburg SV at 28%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
SC Paderborn 07 win
47%
Result
Draw
25%
Hamburg SV win
28%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.3
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Missed
Medium confidence
SC Paderborn 07 or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call, with Paderborn's 0.44 xG advantage and 2.98 combined expected goals suggesting a match tilted toward an open, multi-goal contest."