FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 15 October 2026
TSG Hoffenheim 2–3 BesiktasMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 15 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was TSG Hoffenheim or draw at 74%. Bawler had TSG Hoffenheim at 50%, the draw at 24% and Besiktas at 26%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
TSG Hoffenheim win
50%
Draw
24%
Besiktas win
26%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.3
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 3.4
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
TSG Hoffenheim to win
Pre-match: 50%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.