FT · Europe: Europa League · Thursday, 22 October 2026
TSG Hoffenheim 3–0 LyonMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Lyon or draw at 64%. Bawler had TSG Hoffenheim at 36%, the draw at 25% and Lyon at 39%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
TSG Hoffenheim win
36%
Result
Draw
25%
Lyon win
39%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.6
Total 3.1
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.1 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries an 82% forecast confidence, anchored by Lyon's 1.60 xG and Lacazette's striker role driving 26% of their attacking threat against a Hoffenheim side projecting just 1.50 xG at home."