FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Hamburg SV 1–0 VfB StuttgartMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 17 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was VfB Stuttgart or draw at 76%. Bawler had Hamburg SV at 24%, the draw at 21% and VfB Stuttgart at 55%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Hamburg SV win
24%
Result
Draw
21%
VfB Stuttgart win
55%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 2.2
Total 3.6
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.6 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 88%
Missed
Medium confidence
VfB Stuttgart to win
Pre-match: 55%
Missed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 33%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.