FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 TSG HoffenheimMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Borussia Mönchengladbach or draw at 65%. Bawler had Borussia Mönchengladbach at 41%, the draw at 24% and TSG Hoffenheim at 35%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Borussia Mönchengladbach win
41%
Draw
24%
TSG Hoffenheim win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.6
Total 3.4
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.3 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.4 of our 3.4.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.