Bawler's model rates this match: Strasbourg are favoured (48% win probability vs 27% for Troyes, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Troyes 1-1 Strasbourg (11.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.05.
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Troyes 27%, the draw 25% and Strasbourg 48%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
BTTS: Yes (60% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.29 and away expected goals 1.77.
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.05. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).