Troyes vs Strasbourg prediction — Ligue 1 · Sun 6 Sept · 14:00 UK

Ligue 1 · Sun 6 Sept · 14:00 UK
Troyes 27Draw 25Strasbourg 48
The call
48%
Strasbourg to win
3.1
Goals expected
13d 19hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

Troyes or draw52%
Over 1.5 goals81%
Over 2.5 goals59%
BTTS60%
Troyes win to nil12%
Strasbourg or draw73%
Under 3.5 goals63%
Correct score 1–111%

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (xG)-0.5 / match
Head-to-head, last 5TRO 1 · D 3 · STR 1
Opponent strength indexBottom quartile

Head to head

May 2023Troyes 1–1 Strasbourg
Jan 2023Strasbourg 2–3 Troyes
Apr 2022Troyes 1–1 Strasbourg
Aug 2021Strasbourg 1–1 Troyes
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Common questions

Who will win Troyes vs Strasbourg?

Bawler's model rates this match: Strasbourg are favoured (48% win probability vs 27% for Troyes, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for Troyes vs Strasbourg?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Troyes 1-1 Strasbourg (11.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.05.

How does Bawler predict Troyes vs Strasbourg?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Troyes 27%, the draw 25% and Strasbourg 48%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in Troyes vs Strasbourg?

BTTS: Yes (60% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.29 and away expected goals 1.77.

Over or under 2.5 goals in Troyes vs Strasbourg?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.05. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Ligue 1 table →
All fixtures & results →Troyes form →Strasbourg form →