FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Lorient 1–2 TroyesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 29 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Lorient at 56%, draw at 24%, Troyes at 20%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Lorient to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lorient win
56%
Draw
24%
Troyes win
20%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.87 – 1.04
Total 2.91
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 80%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 33%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Lorient's decisive 0.83 expected-goals advantage at home tilts the model toward a home win or draw (80% forecast), with their 1.87 xG significantly outpacing Troyes' 1.04."