FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Lorient 1–2 TroyesMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Lorient or draw at 80%. Bawler had Lorient at 56%, the draw at 24% and Troyes at 20%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Lorient win
56%
Draw
24%
Troyes win
20%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.0
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 2.9.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Lorient or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Lorient's decisive 0.83 expected-goals advantage at home tilts the model toward a home win or draw (80% forecast), with their 1.87 xG significantly outpacing Troyes' 1.04."