FT · France: Ligue 1 · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Angers 2–0 TroyesMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 19 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Angers at 42%, draw at 26%, Troyes at 32%. The match ended 2-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Angers.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Angers win
42%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Troyes win
32%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.53 – 1.30
Total 2.83
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (-0.8 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 0.8 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 54%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 75% confidence as Angers' superior shot-creation (1.46 xG) gives them the edge in a narrow xG gap that still favors attacking play."