FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Troyes 2–6 StrasbourgMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 06 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Troyes at 27%, draw at 25%, Strasbourg at 48%. The match ended 2-6 — confirming the model's lean toward Strasbourg.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Troyes win
27%
Draw
25%
Strasbourg win
48%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.29 – 1.77
Total 3.06
Actual
2 – 6
Total 8 (+4.9 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 4.9 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
X2
Pre-match: 73%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 37%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Strasbourg's 0.47 expected-goals advantage and Emanuel Emegha's 24% of team xG creation power position the visitors to control play, yet Troyes' home setup keeps this competitive enough that Over 1.5 Goals at 81% is the model's highest-conviction call."