FT · France: Ligue 1 · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Nice 2–1 StrasbourgMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 11 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Strasbourg or draw at 67%. Bawler had Nice at 33%, the draw at 25% and Strasbourg at 42%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Nice win
33%
Result
Draw
25%
Strasbourg win
42%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Strasbourg or draw
Pre-match: 67%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.