Match prediction·France: Ligue 1·Saturday 22 Aug, 18:45 UTC

Toulouse vs Lyon

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

📊 Win probability
33.4% home28.0% draw38.6% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
ToulousestepLyon
1.50Base xG · rolling 26-match1.12
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.50Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.12

Toulouse average 5.1 corners per game at home this season (17 competitive matches). Lyon average 5.3 corners per game away from home this season (23 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
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11
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home windrawaway win

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

More predictions for these teams

Toulouse fixtures & form →Lyon fixtures & form →

Toulouse vs Lyon — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 10 May 2026, Toulouse have won 1, Lyon have won 0, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
10 May 2026Toulouse 2–1 LyonFrance: Ligue 1

The model's verdict for this fixture: Toulouse 33% · draw 28% · Lyon 39%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

Toulouse predictions & form →Lyon predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
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Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.