FT · France: Ligue 1 · Friday, 04 September 2026
Lyon 3–1 AJ AuxerreMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 04 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Lyon at 57%, draw at 24%, AJ Auxerre at 19%. The match ended 3-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Lyon.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Lyon win
57%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Auxerre win
19%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.83 – 0.95
Total 2.78
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 1.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Lyon's desperate push for European qualification at home against a Auxerre side fighting relegation creates the scoring environment the model flags: Over 1.5 Goals at 78% confidence, backed by Lyon's 1.89 xG and a 0.90 advantage in expected chances."