What we expect
In plain English
Toronto FC are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. Orlando City SC have won three of the last five between them. The model sees around three goals in it.
What would change the call
Toronto FC or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC?
Bawler's model rates this match: Toronto FC are favoured (39% win probability vs 37% for Orlando City SC, 25% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Toronto FC 1-1 Orlando City SC (11.1% probability). Expected total goals: 3.18.
How does Bawler predict Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Toronto FC 39%, the draw 25% and Orlando City SC 37%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC?
BTTS: Yes (63% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.61 and away expected goals 1.57.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Toronto FC vs Orlando City SC?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.18. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).