FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Orlando City SC 4–1 D.C. UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 18 October 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Orlando City SC or draw at 71%. Bawler had Orlando City SC at 49%, the draw at 23% and D.C. United at 29%. The match finished 4–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Orlando City SC win
49%
Result
Draw
23%
D.C. United win
29%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.5
Total 3.5
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.6 – 2.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.5 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 87%
Landed
Medium confidence
Orlando City SC or draw
Pre-match: 71%
Landed
Outside shot
Not both teams to score
Pre-match: 32%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.