England: Premier LeagueSunday 30 Aug, 13:00 UTC

Sunderland vFulham

Most likely scoreline
1–0
13% of the time · 2.43 goals expected
Sunderland 44%Draw 33%Fulham 24%
How we get there
SunderlandstepFulham
1.43Base xG · rolling 26-match1.00
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.43Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.00

Early projection

These are the model's current numbers for a fixture that hasn't come round yet. They firm up on matchday, once team news and lineups are in — and once the model's call is locked it's never edited, which is what makes the track record mean anything.

Sunderland average 3.7 corners per game at home this season (20 competitive matches). Fulham average 4.4 corners per game away from home this season (19 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
9
9
4
1
1
13
13
6
2
1
2
9
9
4
1
3
4
4
2
1
4
2
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Team news — absences and latest club updates· as of 16 Aug 2026

SunderlandHome
Unavailable / doubtful
  • Granit Xhaka — NOT INJURED - extended post-World Cup break after reaching the last 16 with Switzerland. Missed the entire North America tour.
    Expected return: Rejoins on Wearside week commencing 3 August 2026, targeted at the Lens friendly on 8 August.
  • Chemsdine Talbi — NOT INJURED - extended post-World Cup break; Morocco lost the quarter-final 0-2 to France on 9 July 2026. Missed the North America tour.
    Expected return: Rejoins week commencing 3 August 2026, targeted at the Lens friendly on 8 August. Sharpness risk for GW1.
  • Omar Alderete — NOT INJURED - extended post-World Cup break with Paraguay. Missed the North America tour.
    Expected return: Rejoins week commencing 3 August 2026. Sharpness risk for GW1.
  • Thomas Meunier — NOT INJURED - extended post-World Cup break with Belgium. Has still not trained with his new club.
    Expected return: Rejoins week commencing 3 August 2026. Very unlikely to start GW1 with effectively no pre-season.
  • Jocelin Ta Bi — NOT INJURED - United States visa application rejected and the appeal also failed. Le Bris, 29 July: 'We didn't solve the visa problem.'
    Expected return: Missed the Leeds friendly and most likely Wrexham (2 August); rejoins the squad back in Sunderland week…
+3 more absences reported
Latest updates
  • 13 Aug · Injury
    Alderete and Mukiele back in training but expected on bench for Ipswich opener
    Le Bris described Alderete's World Cup knee problem as "just about stiffness. It's not major" and said of the pair: "probably both of them should be on the bench for Ipswich, I think."…
  • 13 Aug · Injury
    Adingra pictured in protective boot; Le Bris says winger 'might be a bit longer'
    Adingra hurt his ankle after coming on as a substitute in the pre-season win over Wrexham. Le Bris said on 8 August: "Simon might be a bit longer, so we are still monitoring his ankle and we…
FulhamAway
No absences reported for Fulham in the latest round of club news.
Latest updates
  • 5 Aug · Line-up
    Arbeloa deploying high full-backs; Fulham penalty duty unresolved
    In the 2-1 pre-season win at Farense on 1 August, Ryan Sessegnon started at right-back in Arbeloa's high full-back system, with Antonee Robinson advanced on the left.
  • 5 Aug · Signing
    Fulham complete second Real Madrid deal for midfielder Cesar Palacios
    The 21-year-old attacking midfielder signed from Real Madrid until summer 2031 with a one-year option, for a reported €10m as part of a combined €50m double deal with Garcia.

Club news is gathered once a day from club statements and reporting, last on 16 Aug 2026. It is not a confirmed team sheet — squads are named about an hour before kick-off, after this page was built, so late fitness news may not appear above.

Predicted lineups — expected XI, not a confirmed team sheet

SunderlandHome4-3-3
Goalkeeper
GKRobin Roefs
Defence
RBNordi MukieleCBDan BallardCBOmar AldereteLBReinildo Mandava
Midfield
DMGranit XhakaCMNoah SadikiCMEnzo Le Fee
Attack
RWTrai HumeSTBrian BrobbeyLWChemsdine Talbi
Selection doubts
  • PROJECTION, NOT A QUOTED BEAT-REPORTER XI.
  • TRAI HUME IS THE BIGGEST MODELLING TRAP.
FulhamAway4-3-3
Goalkeeper
GKBernd Leno
Defence
RBKenny TeteCBJoachim AndersenCBCalvin BasseyLBRyan Sessegnon
Midfield
CMHarrison Reed (single pivot / drops into back three)CMSaša LukićCMEmile Smith Rowe
Attack
RWAlex IwobiLWOscar BobbSTRodrigo Muniz
Selection doubts
  • LEFT-BACK — Ryan Sessegnon vs Antonee Robinson.
  • RIGHT-BACK — Kenny Tete vs Timothy Castagne vs the youngster 'Zepa'.

Our projected starting elevens from squad news as of 30 July 2026 — not team sheets. Clubs confirm their starting elevens around an hour before kick-off, after this page was built.

Fantasy angle — top FPL picks in this fixture (2026/27 projections)

E.Le FéeE.Le FéeSUN · MID · £6.0m3.5 pts
BallardBallardSUN · DEF · £5.0m3.2 pts
RoefsRoefsSUN · GKP · £5.0m3.1 pts
All projected points →

More predictions for these teams

Sunderland fixtures & form →Fulham fixtures & form →

Sunderland vs Fulham — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Sunderland and Fulham — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Sunderland 44% · draw 33% · Fulham 24%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Sunderland predictions & form →Fulham predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.