FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Liverpool 0–0 FulhamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 12 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Liverpool at 53%, draw at 24%, Fulham at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 0-0. The model's headline call was Liverpool to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Liverpool win
53%
Draw
24%
Actual ✓
Fulham win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.81 – 1.12
Total 2.93
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (-2.9 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 2.9 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 34%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 79%, anchored by Liverpool's 1.81 xG advantage and Salah's 19% of team shot creation against a Fulham side managing just 1.12 expected goals."