FT · England: EFL Cup · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
West Ham United 2–3 FulhamMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had West Ham United at 39%, draw at 27%, Fulham at 34%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was West Ham United to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
United win
39%
Draw
27%
Fulham win
34%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.46 – 1.33
Total 2.79
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.2 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.2 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 77%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 Goals
Pre-match: 53%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals stands at 77% confidence because Castellanos (26% of West Ham's xG) and Jiménez (25% of Fulham's xG) anchor attacking threats that project a combined 2.79 expected goals in an evenly matched cup tie."