FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Monday, 24 August 2026
Fulham 2–3 ChelseaMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 24 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Fulham or draw at 65%. Bawler had Fulham at 39%, the draw at 26% and Chelsea at 35%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fulham win
39%
Draw
26%
Chelsea win
35%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.4
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced 2.1 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.