FT · ENGLAND: Premier League · Monday, 24 August 2026
Fulham 2–3 ChelseaMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Monday, 24 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Fulham at 39%, draw at 26%, Chelsea at 35%. Against expectation, the match finished 2-3. The model's headline call was Fulham to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fulham win
39%
Draw
26%
Chelsea win
35%
Actual ✓
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.50 – 1.41
Total 2.90
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.1 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.1 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 79%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
✗ Lost