FT · England: EFL Cup · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Fulham 3–0 AFC WimbledonMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Fulham to win at 76%. Bawler had Fulham at 76%, the draw at 17% and AFC Wimbledon at 7%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fulham win
76%
Result
Draw
17%
AFC Wimbledon win
7%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 0.6
Total 3.0
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.8 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Fulham to win
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 35%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Fulham's home advantage combines with a dominant 1.51 expected-goals edge to make a Home Win the model's 71% call, with striker Raúl Jiménez commanding a quarter of their attacking threat."