FT · England: EFL Cup · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Fulham 3–0 AFC WimbledonMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Thursday, 27 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had Fulham at 76%, draw at 17%, AFC Wimbledon at 7%. The match ended 3-0 — confirming the model's lean toward Fulham.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Fulham win
76%
Actual ✓
Draw
17%
Wimbledon win
7%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.37 – 0.60
Total 2.97
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (+0.0 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.0 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 76%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 35%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Fulham's home advantage combines with a dominant 1.51 expected-goals edge to make a Home Win the model's 71% call, with striker Raúl Jiménez commanding a quarter of their attacking threat."