St Mirren vs Celtic prediction — Scottish Prem · Sat 5 Sept · 20:00 UK

Scottish Prem · Sat 5 Sept · 20:00 UK
St Mirren 17Draw 24Celtic 58
The call
58%
Celtic to win
2.7
Goals expected
13d 18hUntil lineups lock

Every market the model rates

St Mirren or draw42%
Over 1.5 goals75%
Over 2.5 goals50%
BTTS49%
St Mirren win to nil10%
Celtic or draw83%
Under 3.5 goals72%
Correct score 0–112%

Model inputs

Home form (last 6)W D W W L L
Expected goals gap (xG)-0.9 / match
Head-to-head, last 5STS 1 · D 0 · CEL 4
Opponent strength indexTop quartile

Head to head

Apr 2026Celtic 6–2 St. Mirren
Apr 2026Celtic 1–0 St. Mirren
Dec 2025St. Mirren 3–1 Celtic
Nov 2025St. Mirren 0–1 Celtic
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Common questions

Who will win St Mirren vs Celtic?

Bawler's model rates this match: Celtic are favoured (58% win probability vs 17% for St Mirren, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.

What is the predicted score for St Mirren vs Celtic?

The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is St Mirren 0-1 Celtic (12.3% probability). Expected total goals: 2.67.

How does Bawler predict St Mirren vs Celtic?

Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives St Mirren 17%, the draw 24% and Celtic 58%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.

Will both teams score in St Mirren vs Celtic?

BTTS: No (51% probability) — at least one team likely fails to score. Based on home expected goals 0.88 and away expected goals 1.79.

Over or under 2.5 goals in St Mirren vs Celtic?

Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 2.67. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).

Around this fixture

Premiership table →
All fixtures & results →St Mirren form →Celtic form →