FT · USA: MLS · Friday, 17 July 2026
St. Louis CITY SC 3–2 Sporting Kansas CityMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 17 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had St. Louis CITY SC at 60%, draw at 25%, Sporting Kansas City at 15%. The match ended 3-2 — confirming the model's lean toward St. Louis CITY SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
60%
Actual ✓
Draw
25%
City win
15%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
2.06 – 0.96
Total 3.02
Actual
3 – 2
Total 5 (+2.0 vs xG)
Match overperformed xG by 2.0 goals. Above-expectation scoring — could be finishing, set-piece luck, or genuine attacking quality the model under-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 26%
✓ Won
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals lands at 81% because St. Louis dominates the xG battle 2.06–0.96, giving them a decisive 1.10-shot quality edge at home."