Match prediction·USA: MLS·Friday 17 Jul, 00:30 UTC

St. Louis CITY SC vs Sporting Kansas City

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 81% because St. Louis dominates the xG battle 2.06–0.96, giving them a decisive 1.10-shot quality edge at home.

📊 Win probability
59.9% home25.2% draw14.9% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
St. Louis CITY SCstepSporting Kansas City
1.83Base xG · rolling 26-match1.02
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
2.06Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.96

St. Louis City average 6.2 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). Sporting Kansas City average 3.7 corners per game away from home this season (21 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
5
5
2
1
1
10
10
5
1
2
10
10
5
2
3
7
7
3
1
4
4
4
2
1
5
2
1
1
6
1
1
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
81%
Over 3.5 goals
26%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

St. Louis CITY SC fixtures & form →Sporting Kansas City fixtures & form →

St. Louis CITY vs Sporting Kansas City — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between St. Louis CITY and Sporting Kansas City — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: St. Louis CITY 60% · draw 25% · Sporting Kansas City 15%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

St. Louis CITY predictions & form →Sporting Kansas City predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
St. Louis CITY SC 3–2 Sporting Kansas City
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.