FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 26 July 2026
St. Louis CITY SC 1–0 Colorado RapidsMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 26 July 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had St. Louis CITY SC at 46%, draw at 31%, Colorado Rapids at 23%. The match ended 1-0 — confirming the model's lean toward St. Louis CITY SC.
> Pre-match probability vs result
SC win
46%
Actual ✓
Draw
31%
Rapids win
23%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.61 – 1.09
Total 2.70
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (-1.7 vs xG)
Match underperformed xG by 1.7 goals. Below-expectation scoring — could be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping, or low-quality chances the model over-rated.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 73%
✗ Lost
Medium confidence
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 53%
✗ Lost
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 20%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 73% probability as St. Louis controls a decisive 0.52 xG advantage and generates 1.61 expected goals at home."