Match prediction·USA: MLS·Sunday 26 Jul, 00:30 UTC

St. Louis CITY SC vs Colorado Rapids

Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.

Why the model calls it this way

Over 1.5 Goals dominates at 73% probability as St. Louis controls a decisive 0.52 xG advantage and generates 1.61 expected goals at home.

📊 Win probability
46.3% home30.6% draw23.1% away
📈 xG chain — base → adjustments → final goal estimate
St. Louis CITY SCstepColorado Rapids
1.43Base xG · rolling 26-match1.16
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.61Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.09

St. Louis City average 6.2 corners per game at home this season (22 competitive matches). Colorado Rapids average 4.3 corners per game away from home this season (22 competitive matches).

🎯 Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
7
4
1
1
11
12
6
2
1
2
9
10
5
2
1
3
5
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
1
1
6
home windrawaway win
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
73%
Both teams to score
53%
Over 3.5 goals
20%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

More predictions for these teams

St. Louis CITY SC fixtures & form →Colorado Rapids fixtures & form →

St. Louis CITY vs Colorado Rapids — Head-to-Head

In 1 recorded meeting since 10 May 2026, St. Louis CITY have won 1, Colorado Rapids have won 0, with 0 drawn. This covers only matches in Bawler's own settled ledger — not an all-time head-to-head record.

DateResultCompetition
10 May 2026Colorado Rapids 0–1 St. Louis CITYUSA: MLS

The model's verdict for this fixture: St. Louis CITY 46% · draw 31% · Colorado Rapids 23%.

Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.

St. Louis CITY predictions & form →Colorado Rapids predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
St. Louis CITY SC 1–0 Colorado Rapids
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.