What we expect
In plain English
Portland Timbers are more likely than not to avoid defeat, but it is close. Sporting Kansas City have not beaten them in their last five meetings. Expect goals: the model sees around three.
What would change the call
Portland Timbers or draw, priced again from the same expected goals if the match reaches these states.
Each row is the call re-priced for that scoreline at half-time. Lineups are not in it — we publish per-player shooting rates, not a squad-strength number, so what a rested front three does to this figure is not something we can honestly put a number on.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who will win Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?
Bawler's model rates this match: Portland Timbers are favoured (45% win probability vs 31% for Sporting Kansas City, 24% draw). The model uses rolling xG, recent form, and lineup data.
What is the predicted score for Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?
The most likely scoreline from Bawler's model is Sporting Kansas City 1-1 Portland Timbers (10.4% probability). Expected total goals: 3.34.
How does Bawler predict Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?
Bawler builds each side's expected goals from a rolling 26-match window, adjusts for home advantage and for injuries or absences in the confirmed squads, then runs the resulting scoreline distribution to get win, draw and both-teams-to-score probabilities. For this match that gives Sporting Kansas City 31%, the draw 24% and Portland Timbers 45%. Every prediction is published before kickoff and settled afterwards.
Will both teams score in Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?
BTTS: Yes (65% probability) — both attacks should find the net. Based on home expected goals 1.51 and away expected goals 1.83.
Over or under 2.5 goals in Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers?
Bawler's model gives a combined expected-goals total of 3.34. The lean is Over 2.5 (a goal-fest is on the cards).