FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 13 September 2026
FC Dallas 2–1 Portland TimbersMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Sunday, 13 September 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Dallas at 51%, draw at 24%, Portland Timbers at 25%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward FC Dallas.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Dallas win
51%
Actual ✓
Draw
24%
Timbers win
25%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.84 – 1.22
Total 3.05
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (-0.1 vs xG)
Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.1 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 81%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
Home Win
Pre-match: 51%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 36%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 81%, as Dallas's 0.62 xG edge and 3.05 combined expected goals suggest a match tilted toward open play and multiple scoring chances."