Spain vs Belgium
Bawler weighs each team's recent scoring and defending, then adjusts for home advantage and injuries to work out how this match is likely to go. This page shows the full chain — every number we used.
Spain's 1X at 80% is the move—their 53% win probability plus 26% draw rate neutralizes Belgium's narrow 0.27 xG deficit (1.55 vs 1.28).
Spain average 6.7 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Belgium average 4.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
Spain vs Belgium — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Spain and Belgium — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: Spain 53% · draw 26% · Belgium 21%.
Model probabilities are edge estimates for entertainment — not betting advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. 18+.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.