Bawler / Spain vs Belgium / Recap
FT · World: World Cup · Friday, 10 July 2026

Spain 2–1 BelgiumMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Friday, 10 July 2026

Spain
2–1
Spain win
Belgium
> 🧠 Model verdict
✓ Model called it

Pre-match, Bawler had Spain at 53%, draw at 26%, Belgium at 21%. The match ended 2-1 — confirming the model's lean toward Spain.

> Pre-match probability vs result
Spain win
53%
Actual ✓
Draw
26%
Belgium win
21%
> Expected vs actual goals
Model expected (xG)
1.55 – 1.28
Total 2.83
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.2 vs xG)

Total goals landed close to the model's expectation — within 0.2 of forecast. Suggests this match played to the underlying xG balance.

> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
1X
Pre-match: 80%
✓ Won
Medium confidence
BTTS Yes
Pre-match: 54%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
✗ Lost
> What we said pre-match
"Spain's 1X at 80% is the move—their 53% win probability plus 26% draw rate neutralizes Belgium's narrow 0.27 xG deficit (1.55 vs 1.28)."

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